Tags. 6:56 AM. Why Caprice should be on SAGE. We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history. Not the ones Rudy Giuliani and his team are posing about voter fraud — the judges are answering those — but more philosophical ones about where the Trump campaign may have fallen short. Select All. He earned the highest share of all minority votes for a Republican since 1960. I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. To questions about the appointment of Andrew Sabisky, a government adviser and self-proclaimed superforecaster who, it transpired, had previously espoused eugenicist views. Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes. Ohio likewise swings with Florida. The prime minister's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has told journalists to "read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don't know what they're talking about". 2. Statistically abnormal vote counts were the new normal when counting resumed. You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. The Superforecasters have raised the odds to 68% that the Conservative Party will win the largest number of seats should a snap election happen. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. In 10 Pennsylvania counties, Biden secured more votes than there were registered Democratic voters. Forecasting challenge sponsors — including, among others, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, The Economist, and the University of Pennsylvania's Mack Institute — invite you to anticipate the major political, economic, and technological events that will shape 2020. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. Updated October 10, 2020 The President`s visit to the hospital after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 was a transient one. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a “red wave” in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests. We have split the workshop into two days – December 9th and 10th. Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote by two-thirds to more than four-in-ten. Share This. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. © Eurasia Group 2020. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. “Over votes.” Pennsylvania mailed out 1.8 million ballots, but 2.5 million ballots were returned. Bellwether states swung further in Trump’s direction than in 2016. 6:56 AM. Are you a Superforecaster®? Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. Biden’s margin is 12,670 votes. 21 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 36% chance Italy will hold a snap general election before 31 December 2020, down from the 56% mark on 27 January. Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC. Catholics also supported Trump in higher numbers. It could get violent. 2 December 2020. The superforecaster panel—more about them below—are pretty equally divided between those who expect a vaccine between October 2020 and March 2021, and those who expect it … I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Updated 2050 GMT (0450 HKT) February 17, 2020 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced calls to dismiss a controversial adviser. Former Massachusetts Gov. Invalid residential addresses. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working class Whites. Midwestern states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always swing in the same direction as Ohio and Iowa, their regional peers. Here’s one of Cockburn’s, for example: how is it that Trump’s youth support dropped by three percentage points compared to 2016? You may share a link to this page on any of the sites listed below. In Nevada, there are 77,982 more votes in the presidential election than total ballots cast; Biden’s current margin is 33,596. Interested in learning more about Eurasia Group and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? The upheaval could last for months. To learn more, view our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? Participants should plan to attend both sessions. Coronavirus Outbreak. Australia's best political analysis - straight to your inbox, Ballots are recounted in Gwinnett County, Georgia, ‘We’re here about the superforecaster job.’, ‘Yes, you could say we’re self-isolating.’, ‘And let’s all try to be a little bit kinder.’, ‘Poor Rishi Sunak — he has four houses to worry about.’, The Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP, Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling, Parents targeted in Daniel Andrews’ latest gender theory folly, Dangerous elites planning ‘the Great Reset’, China is deliberately singling out Australia to intimidate the region, The Greens: the seasons are now Autumn, Winter, Spring and Climate Change, Victoria offers all the help in the world to enter LGBT life, but wants to ban receiving help to leave it, Ita Buttrose: Emma Alberici, eat your heart out, Ok, Twitter. Fireworks on … Statistical anomalies. Closing . Ballots exceeded the number of residents by 2.5 times in some Georgia precincts. Current tallies show that, outside of a few cities, the Rust Belt swung in Trump’s direction. M5S is in an ever-deeper crisis and even more reluctant to face elections given its continued decline in opinion polls. Late arriving ballots were counted. It could fracture America. If you think that only weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you. Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. 7. This is up from last week's 2% figure, but still significantly lower than the 20–30% range, which the figure moved in through the second half of last year. The US election obviously poses our next challenge. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. There are still questions hanging over the 2020 election. I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. PD is under less pressure than before the Emilia-Romagna elections, however, to reconsider its alliance with M5S.
2020 superforecaster 2020 election